While the crisis of the novel coronary pneumonia epidemic is spreading rapidly, many people believe that sooner or later the epidemic, no matter how serious, will end. However, is this really the case?
We usually use a specific term to describe an epidemic, such as "SARS 2003", which can lead people to believe that it is only an epidemic that will occur at a specific time. Of course, epidemiologically speaking, epidemics do end. But the end of an epidemic does not mean that the threat is cleared. The possibility of another epidemic outbreak is always present.
According to Jonathan Quick, author of "The End of the Epidemic: How to Clear the Potential Threat to Humanity from Epidemics," there are three possible outcomes of this new coronavirus epidemic.
1. eradication like the smallpox virus in 1980.
If the global increase in cases of novel coronavirus remains zero for a long time, that would also mean it is eradicated. Quirk said that eradicating novel coronavirus would require not only the development of an effective vaccine to prevent new human infections, but also efforts to block all animal sources of virus transmission; at this stage, this is "virtually impossible. The animal source of the new coronavirus remains an unsolved mystery. The incubation period of the virus, the risk of reinfection, the effectiveness of antiviral drugs, and the accuracy of the number of reported cases have yet to be confirmed.
2. Novel coronavirus is cleared (test results turn negative)
This also means that the number of new cases in certain geographic areas drops to zero. In the long run, Quirk said, the novel coronavirus can be cleared after a highly effective vaccine is developed, though it will take at least five years. Pharmaceutical companies are scrambling to develop therapies and vaccines for the new coronavirus in clinical trials, but it will be at least a few months before the newly developed drugs are available.
3. From global spread to "endemic"
An endemic disease is one that persists in a particular region or population. For example, Guangdong people are prone to gout; Hunan people are prone to oral cancer, Shanghai people are prone to insomnia, and Henan people are prone to cardiovascular diseases. The common cold is also a typical endemic disease.
Gregory Gray, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Duke University, said SARS-COV-2, the virus that causes the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), appears to be with us for a long time and may cause seasonal respiratory illnesses like other common human coronaviruses.
