Top U.S. infectious disease experts say that although the weather is warming, it doesn't mean the new coronavirus will fade away, FoxNews.com reported on Sept. 9. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health and a member of the U.S. New Coronavirus Working Group, said in an interview on the 9th that there is precedent for other diseases, such as influenza, where the ability of the virus to replicate and spread decreases as the weather warms. Among other infectious diseases and common, more benign coronaviruses, he said, the virus usually prefers cold, dry weather over warm, humid weather.
Despite this, people shouldn't assume that a change in weather will save us," Fauci said. You have to assume that the virus will continue. If we can get help from climate change, that's certainly good. But I don't think we need that assumption." Given that people will soon be returning to work or attending large gatherings, Fauci cautioned that people should continue to keep their social distance and maintain the habit of washing their hands regularly.
Days earlier, a National Academy of Sciences panel wrote to the White House on July 7 that there remains uncertainty about whether the new coronavirus can spread in warm weather as it does in cold weather. "There is some evidence that neo-coronavirus transmission rates are relatively reduced in environments with higher temperatures and humidity, but given the global lack of host immunity, a reduction in transmission rates would not result in a significant reduction in disease transmission without a concurrent major public health intervention."
The report was put together by a dozen members of the National Academy of Sciences Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats.
The report says the role of weather in the spread of new coronaviruses should be interpreted with caution. Given that some countries, such as Australia and Iran, are in the middle of summer, yet neo-coronaviruses are still spreading rapidly in those countries, it should not be assumed that warmer weather will lead to fewer cases. "Given the lack of worldwide immunity to neo-coronaviruses, the effect of temperature and humidity on their transmission rate, if any, may not be as pronounced as in other respiratory diseases, for which there was previously at least partial immunity," the report said.
