As winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures drop further, experts have previously said that outbreaks could resurface or intensify during the winter, especially where the outbreak is poorly controlled.
Stanford University microbiologist David Rillman said the outbreak is now in full swing. Rillman said that the new coronavirus is currently in its heyday. We should be quite conscious that the next few months are going to be very difficult.
It is known that on October 28, 2020, French President Maccarone announced that France would once again "close the country" from October 30 in order to contain the spread of the new crown outbreak.
The French President Maccarone announced that the country would be closed again from 30 October 2020 to contain the spread of the epidemic. Restaurants, bars, and other non-essential businesses will be closed, non-essential travel will be prohibited, universities will be closed for online classes, and the government is encouraging businesses to work remotely from home. Outside of France, Germany, the Czech Republic and parts of the United Kingdom have already begun a second round of closures.
Winter is good for the spread of new coronaviruses.
We all know that respiratory viruses have a seasonal pattern, including influenza and some coronaviruses, which run rampant in the winter and fall into a slump as summer approaches. It's still too early to say whether new coronaviruses will become seasonal, researchers say. But there is growing evidence that, depending on how the virus is known to spread and how people behave during the cold season, it could lead to a larger outbreak in the winter.
Experiments have shown that the new coronavirus prefers cold and dry environments while fearing direct sunlight, and that artificial ultraviolet light can rapidly inactivate the virus on the surface of objects and in aerosols, especially at temperatures around 40°C. In warm and humid environments. Infectious viruses also degrade more rapidly.
A study published Oct. 13 focused on the growth of new crown infections in the first four months of the pandemic, when most countries had not yet taken control measures. The study found that infections rose fastest in places with less UV radiation, and it predicted that without any intervention, cases would decline in the summer and peak in the winter.
Princeton University epidemiologist Rachel Baker sought to determine the impact of climate on seasonal patterns of cases during a pandemic by using another kind of data - an analysis of coronavirus sensitivity to humidity. She and her colleagues modeled the rise and fall of other coronavirus infections in New York City over several years. The experiments found that if control measures merely sought to contain the virus, even a small climatic effect could lead to large outbreaks of infection when the season changed. Baker therefore suggested that stricter control measures may be needed in winter to reduce the risk of outbreaks.
However, as more people build immunity to the virus over time, seasonal influences may play a more important role in driving infection trends. This could take up to five years through natural infection, or less if vaccinated, Baker said.
Colin Carlson, a Georgetown University biologist who studies emerging diseases, said whether a new crown seasonal pattern will emerge and what it will look like will depend on many factors yet to be understood, including how long immunity lasts, how long it takes to recover and how likely people are to be reinfected.
